How to Conduct a PERT Analysis
To conduct PERT Analysis, three-time estimates are obtained (optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely) for every activity along the Critical Path. Then use those estimates in the formula below to calculate how much time for each project stage:
Formula: (P+4M+O)/6
- Optimistic Time (O): the minimum possible time required to accomplish a task, assuming everything proceeds better than is normally expected.
- Pessimistic Time (P): the maximum possible time required to accomplish a task, assuming everything goes wrong (excluding major catastrophes).
- Most likely Time (M): the best estimate of the time required to accomplish a task, assuming everything proceeds as normal.
Example of a Critical Path Nodal Diagram
Definition Critical Path: The longest path of scheduled activities that must be met to execute a project.
Advantages and Disadvantages of PERT Analysis
Understanding the advantages and disadvantages of utilizing PERT analysis will give program managers and project personnel a better understanding of the realities of their schedules. It takes an experienced program manager to truly utilize the benefits a PERT analysis can provide a project team.
- Advantages: Provides Program Managers information to evaluate time and resources on a project. It helps give them the necessary information to make informed decisions and set a realistic schedule.
- Disadvantages: The analysis can be highly subjective and be influenced a few outspoken team members. It also required a lot of time to continually update the analysis as a program progresses.
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